World at turning point must attend urgently to climate change, rising loss, damage

COP 19 at Warsaw “must trigger new dynamics”

Excerpt, editing by
Carolyn Bennett

GERMANWATCH: “Global Climate Risk Index 2014: Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2012 and 1993 to 2012

This year’s 9th edition of the analysis reconfirms that, according to the Climate Risk Index, less developed countries are generally more affected than industrialized countries.

Regarding future climate change, the Climate Risk Index may serve as a red flag for already existing vulnerability that may further increase in regions, where extreme events will become more frequent or more severe due to climate change. While some vulnerable developing countries are frequently hit by extreme events, there are also some others where such disasters are a rare occurrence.

“In terms of extreme weather events, the year 2012 will most likely be remembered for the occurrence of Hurricane Sandy (October 2012), which amounted to damages of over USD 68 billion and made global media headlines for several days. However, what the media often failed to mention was the impact the ‘Frankenstorm’ had on countries outside the United States.

The hurricane wreaked havoc in the Caribbean with Haiti being hit hardest, thus accounting for the country’s rise to the top of this year’s Climate Risk Index. In this Caribbean country still recovering from the devastating earthquake in 2010, the heavy rainfalls fuelled by Sandy not only left 200,000 people homeless, but also destroyed much of Haiti’s crops, which had already been affected by Hurricane Isaac in late August 2012.

The Germanwatch Climate Risk Index ranks countries according to relative and absolute number of human victims, and relative and absolute economic damage. The core data stems from the Munich Re NatCatSERVICE. The most recent available data from 2012 as well as for the 20-year-period 1993-2012 were taken into account for the preparation of this index.

The countries affected most in 2012 were Haiti, the Philippines and Pakistan.

For the period from 1993 to 2012 Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti rank highest.

Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index Report’s Key messages 

• Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti were the countries affected most by extreme weather events between 1993 and 2012. 

• From the ten most affected countries (1993–2012) eight were developing countries in the low-income or lower-middle income country group, while two belong to the upper-middle income countries. 

• Altogether more than 530,000 people died as a direct result of approx. 15,000 extreme weather events, and losses between 1993 and 2012 amounted to more than 2.5 trillion USD (in PPP;1 USD 1.75 trillion overall losses in original values). [PPP or purchasing power parity: the concept allows one to estimate what the exchange rate between two currencies would have to be in order for the exchange to be on par with the purchasing power of the two countries’ currencies.]

• In 2012, Haiti, the Philippines and Pakistan led the list of the most affected countries. 

• The 2012 droughts and floods in large areas of the Balkan, eastern Europe and southern Russia in the aftermath of the unparalleled 2010 wildfires have proven the climate vulnerability of the region that hosts the 2013 Climate Change Conference (COP 19 in Warsaw). This should serve as a wake-up call for the region to ramp up its domestic and international climate policy positions. 

• The Warsaw Summit provides the opportunity to further detail the adaptation implementation by determining the role of adaptation in the 2015 agreement and by renewing the international adaptation knowledge management. 

• In Warsaw the Parties will discuss how to institutionalize the loss and damage agenda. COP 19 must make commitments towards establishing a consolidated international response for instance in the form of a mechanism. 

• Many developing countries are already taking measures in preparation for climate-related disasters, promoting as well as implementing adaptation. Yet the industrialized countries must provide adequate financial and institutional support to further advance disaster preparedness and resilience of the poor countries. A substantial outcome of Warsaw would be a clear commitment to climate funding towards 2020 in general, and specific funding pledges to the Least Developed Country Fund and the Adaptation Fund. 

Germanwatch is a think tank focused on “the politics and economics of the North and their worldwide consequences.” It concerns itself with “promoting global equity and the preservation of livelihoods.”

1993-2012 most affected

(report excerpt continued)

Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti have been identified as the most affected countries followed by Nicaragua, Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Haiti, the poorest country of the Western Hemisphere, rises into the top three of the most affected countries over the past two decades due to the serious impact that Hurricane Sandy had on the Caribbean island. Still coping with the aftermath of the heavy earthquake of 2010, the country suffered losses amounting to USD 750 million, which is equivalent to approximately 10 percent of its total GDP.

Particularly in relative terms, poorer developing countries are hit much harder. These results emphasize the particular vulnerability of poor countries to climatic risks, despite the fact that the absolute monetary damages are much higher in richer countries. Loss of life and personal hardship is also much more widespread ─ especially in the low-income countries.

2012 most affected

(report excerpt continued)

Haiti, the Philippines and Pakistan have been identified as the most affected countries last year, followed by Madagascar, Fiji and Serbia.

Hurricane Sandy that hit the United States wreaked havoc in the Caribbean with Haiti being hit hardest, thus accounting for that country’s rise to the top of this year’s Climate Risk Index. In the Caribbean country still recovering from the devastating earthquake in 2010, the heavy rainfalls fuelled by Sandy not only left 200,000 people homeless, but also destroyed much of the

Haiti’s crops, which had already been affected by Hurricane Isaac in late August 2012.

Therefore, the researchers conclude

“The climate summit 2013 held in Warsaw, Poland, represents a defining moment and should mark a turning point for the international community by starting immediately to scale-up its response in addressing climate change and the increasing loss and damage.

“The window of time to put the world on track to stay below the 2 degrees C guardrail is closing rapidly, and Warsaw must trigger new dynamics.”

Beyond Warsaw

For the international community the Warsaw Climate Summit (COP 19) represents “the midway point en route to agreeing upon a new universal climate regime (that is to be adopted in 2015 and to come into effect in 2020). 

“Part of these talks that were established in 2011 focus on creating a legally binding accord or protocol that will comprehensively address emissions from industrialized and developing   countries. The Warsaw Summit is expected to provide the basis for that by setting up a detailed roadmap for the negotiation process in 2014 and 2015.”

Sources and notes

"Global Climate Risk Index 2014: Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-Related Loss Events in 2012 and 1993 to 2012" BRIEFING PAPER by Sönke Kreft and David Eckstein http://germanwatch.org/de/download/8551.pdf

Cover CRI 2014

Authors: Sönke Kreft and David Eckstein; Editing: Birgit Kolboske, Daniela Baum and Gerold Kier; Germanwatch thanks Munich RE (in particular Petra Löw and Jakob Alfredo) for their support (especially the provision of the core data which are the basis for the Global Climate Risk Index); Publisher: Germanwatch e.V., Office Bonn Office Berlin, Kaiserstr. 201, Schiffbauerdamm 15; D-53113 Bonn D-10117 Berlin 0; Phone +49 (0) 228 60492-0, Fax -19 Phone +49 (0) 30 2888 356-0; Internet: http://www.germanwatch.org

E-Mail: info@germanwatch.org

November 2013

ISBN 978-3-943704-14-3

This publication can be downloaded at: www.germanwatch.org/en/cri

Prepared with financial support from the German Federal Ministry for Economic

Cooperation and Development (BMZ) Comments welcome. For correspondence with the authors contact: kreft@germanwatch.org

http://germanwatch.org/en/7673

The Global Climate Risk Index 2014 analyses to what extent countries have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heat waves etc.). The most recent data available—from 2012 and 1993–2012—were taken into account. The countries affected most in 2012 were Haiti, the Philippines and Pakistan. For the period from 1993 to 2012 Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti rank highest.

This year’s 9th edition of the analysis reconfirms that according to the Climate Risk Index less developed countries are generally more affected than industrialized countries. Regarding future climate change, the Climate Risk Index may serve as a red flag for already existing vulnerability that may further increase in regions, where extreme events will become more frequent or more severe due to climate change. While some vulnerable developing countries are frequently hit by extreme events, there are also some others where such disasters are a rare occurrence.

The climate summit 2013 held in Warsaw, Poland, is a defining moment and should mark a turning point for the international community by starting immediately to scale-up its response in addressing climate change and the increasing loss and damage. The window of time to put the world on track to stay below the 2°C guardrail is closing rapidly, and Warsaw must trigger new dynamics.

Links:

[1] http://germanwatch.org/de/download/8551.pdf

 [2] http://germanwatch.org/de/download/8552.pdf

 [3] http://germanwatch.org/de/order/publication/7659

 [4] http://germanwatch.org/de/kri

 [5] http://germanwatch.org/de/7675

 [6] http://germanwatch.org/en/7673

 [7] http://germanwatch.org/de/thema/klima/internationale-klimapolitik

 [8] http://germanwatch.org/de/thema/klima

 [9] http://germanwatch.org/de/thema/klima/internationale-klimapolitik/un-klimaverhandlungen

 [10] http://germanwatch.org/de/thema/klima/internationale-klimapolitik/entwicklung-klima

 [11] http://germanwatch.org/de/thema/klima/internationale-klimapolitik/sicherheit-klima

 [12] http://germanwatch.org/de/thema/klima/internationale-klimapolitik/klimawissenschaft

http://germanwatch.org/de/7659

  

GERMANWATCH

On its website the group writes, “Following the motto Observing, ‘Analyzing, Acting’, Germanwatch has been actively promoting global equity and the preservation of livelihoods since 1991. In doing so, we focus on the politics and economics of the North and their worldwide consequences.

“The situation of marginalized people in the South is the starting point of our work. Together with our members and supporters as well as with other actors in civil society, we intend to represent a strong lobby for sustainable development. We attempt to approach our goals by advocating for the prevention of dangerous climate change, for food security, and compliance of companies with human rights.

“Germanwatch is funded by membership fees, donations, grants from the ‘Stiftung Zukunftsfähigkeit’ (Foundation for Sustainability) as well as grants from various other public and private donors.”

Location: Germanwatch – Bonn Office, Kaiserstrasse 201, D-53113 Bonn, Germany

Ph.: +49 (0)228 / 60492-0; Fax: +49 (0)228 / 60492-19; Germanwatch – Berlin Office

Schiffbauerdamm 15, D-10117 Berlin, Germany, Ph.: +49 (0)30 / 2888 356-0; Fax: +49 (0)30 / 2888 356 -1; E-Mail: info@germanwatch.org

Website: www.germanwatch.org

“Germany urges universal climate agreement at UN Warsaw conference: Germany’s environment minister has emphasized the need for a global agreement aimed at stopping climate change during the UN climate conference in Warsaw. But Germany’s international climate credentials are slipping” November 20, 2013, http://www.dw.de/germany-urges-universal-climate-agreement-at-un-warsaw-conference/a-17241791

Climate change is ruining the hopes of prosperity and development for millions, if not billions of people.

The devastating typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines is the latest staggering example … but also with the hundreds of millions of people still exposed without decent protection to similar typhoons still to come. This means that we have a responsibility to act.

We must succeed in adopting a climate agreement that is binding for all states, for all of us. We must do everything in our power to ensure that a historic agreement covering all states is going to be adopted in Paris in 2015 … Securing this agreement is probably the most important duty of humanitarian solidarity in our century. [Germany’s environment minister Peter Altmaier speaking today at the United Nations Climate Change conference in Warsaw, Poland]

________________________________________________

Bennett's books are available in New York State independent bookstores: Lift Bridge Bookshop: www.liftbridgebooks.com [Brockport, NY]; Sundance Books: http://www.sundancebooks.com/main.html [Geneseo, NY]; Mood Makers Books: www.moodmakersbooks.com [City of Rochester, NY]; Dog Ears Bookstore and Literary Arts Center: www.enlightenthedog.org/ [Buffalo, NY]; Burlingham Books – ‘Your Local Chapter’: http://burlinghambooks.com/ [Perry, NY 14530]; The Bookworm: http://www.eabookworm.com/ [East Aurora, NY] • See also: World Pulse: Global Issues through the eyes of Women: http://www.worldpulse.com/ http://www.worldpulse.com/pulsewire http://www.facebook.com/#!/bennetts2ndstudy

________________________________________________